What is populism?
Populism is a simple approach to politics. It boils things down to black and white and dismisses all complications. A populist political stance often focuses on the concept of “the people” versus an “elite” and by appealing to the inequalities and discriminations that many people face, it is easy to see why a populist party can become popular and win the support of many voters. But a lot of the time, populist rhetoric is more about emotion than it is about facts. If you can tap into what makes people mad, if you can raise feelings of enmity against the opposition, if you can sow the seeds of dissent, you can create political instability and open the doors for populism to take hold.
Populism has been on the rise in recent times due to a breakdown of trust in institutions. The economic crisis of 2008, and the subsequent bailout of the banks and corporations in many countries, led to feelings of injustice from many people who had to suffer through these times with no support, or bailout. In the USA, the election of “blue-collar billionaire” Donald Trump as president demonstrated a dissatisfaction with traditional political figures and represented a desire to disrupt the status quo. In Britain, the success of the Brexit campaign showed an apathy towards the single market and a desire for isolationist policies largely encouraged through xenophobic campaigning from populist right wing political parties such as UKIP. In Brazil, the election of far-right populist leader Jair Bolsonaro was a reaction to deep economic turmoil, high crime rates, and political corruption which led to a desire to reject the political establishment.
But issues around inequality, corruption, and economic instability are not new and they have not always led to a rise in populism. According to Guido Tabellini, Professor of Economics at Bocconi University, the rise of populism today is a symptom of the modern world we are living in and the ease with which we can access and spread information that allows populism to flourish:
It is quite likely that disintermediation of traditional sources of information has amplified the emotional reactions, stereotyping and belief distortions that are typically associated with political extremism. Moreover, by facilitating direct contact between citizens and political leaders, the new digital media have reduced the barriers to entry of new political organisations. (Tabellini, 2019)
History – From Atatürk to Erdoğan
To understand how populism has taken hold in Turkey, we must first understand the historical context that it comes from. Born out of the fall of the Ottoman Empire at the end of the First World War and led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the history of Turkey is extremely unstable. With a pull between Europe and Asia, the East and West, modernity versus tradition. The history of the state is marked by genocide, military coups, and martial law.
Modern Turkey was founded on the remnants of the Ottoman Empire. During this time the Armenian Genocide was carried out which estimates a death toll from 800,000 to 1.5 million people. Economic growth in the country was accelerated through the seizing of Armenian land, houses, and property. Many of the dynasties on which current Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s rule is built upon goes back to this period of dispossession which took place in 1915, 1920, 1922 right up to the creation of modern Turkey in 1923. Since then Turkey has only expressed vague regrets with Erdoğan presenting a nationalist myth that seems to ignore the atrocities of the past, a common tactic from populist leaders. Erdoğan said at a press conference in Istanbul that “our attitude on the Armenian issue has been clear from the beginning. We will never accept accusations of genocide” and “there is nothing in our past that we should be ashamed of” (Daily Sabah, 2016)
The first military coup in the country happened in 1960 when the army overthrew the government and declared martial law. Surveys from that time indicated that what people wanted was protection of the population, families and mosques mirroring what they would get years later with Erdoğan. A breakdown with trust in institutions is evident throughout Turkey’s history with further military coups occurring in 1971, 1980, 1993, 1997 as well as the failed coup of 2016 while Erdoğan was in office. The Turkish people have a long history of political and religious instability and Erdoğan through a populist approach was able to tap into this with promises of stability.
Charismatic leaders tap into public discontent
The rise of populism today can be viewed as a symptom of the breakdown of trust in institutions. These feelings can be latched onto by populist leaders who assure the public that they alone represent the will of the people. While the economy does play a role in the rise of populism, it is not always the full story. In the case of Turkey, the economy had been growing at a rate of around 7% per year for over a decade. Researchers at the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) say that when trust breaks down people look to charismatic leaders who promised to solve all problems:
You have to look at issues of trust, the complete collapse in voter’s confidence with regard to the political elites, the traditional elites, business elites, union elites, even religious elites. And, of course, when trust goes down, people are likely to look for a saviour, and populist politicians are there with a flag saying ‘Vote for me, I will solve all problems.’ They don’t, but it takes people a while to realize that. (IADB Research Department, 2019)
Erdoğan was imprisoned in 1997 for four months for inciting religious hatred by reciting a poem by political figure and Young Turk Ziya Gökalp. This extended Erdoğan’s popularity, strengthening his conviction that achieving power would mean adapting an Islamo-democractic façade. Erdoğan and his party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), came to power in 2002. Erdoğan was seen as a political saviour whose modern Muslim state or the “Turkish model” demonstrated the compatibility of Islam and democracy. Erdoğan brought economic stability, raised the standards of living for the poorest in society, and won votes as a result.
However, the 2016 coup d'état attempt to overthrow Erdoğan and the AKP demonstrated a backlash against Erdoğan’s populism. Reasons cited for the coup were human rights violations, the erosion of secularism and Turkey’s diminishing reputation on the international stage. But a failed coup only further solidified Erdoğan’s power and allowed for the mass incarceration of political opponents with at least 40,000 detained and 180,000 people who lost their job. The results of populism start to become clear when you see dissenting voices silenced. The failed coup furthered the Islamification of Turkey which Erdogan described as a “gift from god” (Pike, 2020).
Erdoğan’s Anti-Western Stance
Turkey has always been stuck between two worlds: The East and the West. While the legacy of Ataturk may have encouraged a pro-western secular stance, since the election of Erdogan the country “has morphed from a determinedly secular pro-European country to an authoritarian anti-European Islamic state” (Erdogan’s game, the Spectator). Erdoğan’s populism has led the country to be at odds with both the European Union and the USA, strengthening links with Moscow and getting involved with the Syrian civil war. Erdoğan has been highly critical of the West and Western leaders describing the Dutch government as “Nazi remnants and fascists” (BBC, 2017) and saying that French president Emmanuel Macron was in need of “mental treatment” (Pike, 2020) for his comments about radical Muslims after the murder of a French school teacher by an Islamic terrorist, leading to a call to boycott French goods. With his alliances primarily focused on Russia and China now Erdoğan’s populist approach has led to a move away from a once strong desire to join the EU and a breakdown in relations with other countries.
What do the people think?
The views of everyday people in Turkey vary widely with some supportive of Erdoğan and others critical. Adem Çağatay Ergan, an 18-year-old Turkish citizen, said that Erdoğan represents the people well. “He knows Turkish people well and acts accordingly. He is a strong man of the people. He is conservative, but also a bit progressive. He challenges the world. He can speak up to imperialist b*stards that are always trying to f*ck Turkey over.”
Eymen Yıldırım said that Erdoğan had no choice but to turn away from the West as the European Union would not allow Turkey to join and the only way to protect the country from Russia was to align with them:
The greatest threat to Turkey has always been Russia, and the greatest way to protect against them is an alliance with the EU which Erdogan pursued. The EU shunned Turkey repeatedly as it helps win votes at home and helps them maintain power across the continent. To no one's surprise he then looked elsewhere to gain geopolitical advantages to use as leverage to halt Russian influence in the region surrounding the country.
While Miraç Demir, aged 34, said that Erdoğan was a good leader at the beginning of his rule as he helped fix the economy, his later shift toward religion and corruption made him turn away, “he started to wash people's brains. He used religion for own his purposes. He made people stupid, he cheated in elections.”
Another Turkish citizen who chose to remain anonymous said that support for Erdoğan comes from the way he is presented by the media and compares his followers to conspiracy theorists and Trump supporters in the USA. “He keeps telling lies to his people and media support them. That’s another reason why he’s so popular. Think about the anti-vaxxers, flat-earthers and Trump supporters and how they believe those lies. Erdoğan’s lies, supported by his media, has the same effect.”
The rise in populism today can be seen as a societal reaction to the breakdown of trust in institutions. Erdoğan’s rule in has been maintained through an appeal to populism which in Turkey is intrinsically tied to religion. This appeal, while popular with many people in Turkey, does not have the same effect elsewhere and has strained relations with both the USA and the European Union which causes Erdoğan to turn even further away from the West. As problems mount in the country which is facing economic challenges due to the coronavirus pandemic, conflict with Syria and Libya, and the country’s credibility being eroded due to Erdoğan’s populism it is difficult to say what the future holds for Turkey and if Erdoğan will be able to maintain power after the next general election in 2023.
Bibliography
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